sábado, 31 de marzo de 2012

Optimismo sobre el precio del Oro Guyana (Guayana Esequiba)


http://www.stabroeknews.com/2012/opinion/letters/03/30/it-is-hard-not-to-be-optimistic-about-the-future-price-of-gold/print/
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Es difícil no ser optimista sobre el futuro precio del oro

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Posted By Stabroek staff On March 30, 2012 @ 5:07 am In Letters | No Comments Publicado por Stabroek personal en 30 de marzo 2012 @ 05:07 am En Cartas |
Dear Editor, Sr. Director:
The price of gold fell to US$1,667 an ounce mid-March thus reversing the upward trend experienced when the price continued to rise to reach US$1788 in February 2012. El precio del oro cayó a EE.UU. $ 1.667 la onza a mediados de marzo revirtiendo así la tendencia alcista experimentada cuando el precio ha seguido aumentando hasta llegar a EE.UU. $ 1788 en febrero de 2012. Gold is the most popular of all the precious metals and has not lost its glitter despite the dissolution of the gold standard and the high price of jewellery. El oro es el más popular de todos los metales preciosos y no ha perdido su brillo pese a la disolución del patrón oro y el alto precio de las joyas.

Historically, investors and central banks around the world hold gold as a store of value and to hedge against crisis, be it economic, political or a traumatic currency crisis. Históricamente, los inversionistas y los bancos centrales de todo el mundo celebran el oro como reserva de valor y para protegerse contra la crisis, sea económica, política o de una crisis monetaria traumático. The current economic uncertainty of the world's major currencies, be it the US dollar, the euro or the Japanese yen will see gold continuing as a main store of value. La incertidumbre económica actual de las principales monedas del mundo, ya sea el dólar de EE.UU., el euro o el yen japonés se verá el oro continúa como principal almacén de valor. The price of gold unlike the value of paper or fiat currencies cannot easily be manipulated by economic actors. El precio del oro a diferencia del valor de papel o monedas fiduciarias no pueden ser fácilmente manipulados por los agentes económicos. Gold is therefore the most important commodity money. El oro es por lo tanto, el dinero producto más importante.

What is important to note is the standard text model of demand and supply cannot be relied on solely as the mechanism in the determination of the price of gold. ¿Qué es importante tener en cuenta es el texto del modelo normalizado de la demanda y la oferta no puede ser invocado únicamente como el mecanismo para la determinación del precio del oro.
The last decade especially after the global financial crisis saw the plummeting of Wall Street wealth. En la última década sobre todo después de la crisis financiera mundial vio el desplome de Wall Street la riqueza. Since then gold has regained the special traction that had symbolized it as a safe store of value for more than two thousand years. Desde entonces, el oro ha recuperado la tracción especial que había simbolizado como un almacén de valor seguro por más de dos mil años. This coveted value or confidence factor is preserved by the fact that it's nobody's liability. Este valor codiciado o factor de confianza se mantiene por el hecho de que es responsabilidad de nadie.

The history of gold as one of the earliest forms of money, the gold standard, the large amount of gold reserves accumulated by central banks, its low correlation with the other metal prices and its price relationship with fiat currencies is a manifestation of gold behaving more like money than a commodity. La historia del oro como una de las primeras formas de dinero, el patrón oro, la gran cantidad de reservas de oro acumuladas por los bancos centrales, su baja correlación con los precios de otros metales y su relación con el precio de las monedas fiduciarias es una manifestación de oro comportarse de manera más gusta el dinero que una mercancía. Despite all major currency pegs being removed from the gold standard, with last being the Swiss franc in early 2000, central banks still hold a major part of their reserves in gold. A pesar de todas las monedas de los principales clavijas de ser retirado del patrón oro, con la última de las cuales el franco suizo a principios de 2000, los bancos centrales aún tienen una parte importante de sus reservas en oro. The central banks in Europe hold on average 58 per cent of their reserves in gold, followed by the Federal Reserve Bank at 50 per cent. Los bancos centrales de Europa tienen en promedio 58 por ciento de sus reservas en oro, seguido por el Banco de la Reserva Federal el 50 por ciento. In total, central banks along with international organizations like the IMF hold nearly 20 per cent of world gold output. En total, los bancos centrales, junto con organizaciones internacionales como el FMI ocupan casi el 20 por ciento de la producción mundial de oro. Sir Isaac Newton created the first gold standard in the UK in 1717, and despite breaking from the gold standard central banks have not relinquished that trust in gold. Sir Isaac Newton creó el estándar de oro por primera vez en el Reino Unido en 1717, ya pesar de romper con los bancos centrales de oro estándar no han renunciado a que la confianza en el oro.

The gold price rose by the double digits in percentage terms in nearly every year except 2004 in the last ten years. El precio del oro aumentó en los dos dígitos en términos porcentuales en casi todos los años excepto 2004, en los últimos diez años. The high demand for gold is also propelled by jewellery and industrial demand that accounts for a large share of demand. La alta demanda de oro también impulsado por la demanda de joyería e industrial que representa una gran parte de la demanda.

The India jewellery subsector represents 27 per cent of this demand and is the largest market for this segment of demand, followed by China and the US. El subsector de la joyería de la India representa el 27 por ciento de esta demanda y es el mayor mercado para este segmento de la demanda, seguido por China y los EE.UU.. According to the World Gold Council, annual mine production averaged 2,500 tonnes with some 2,000 tonnes going towards jewellery and industrial production. Según el Consejo Mundial del Oro, la producción minera anual promedio de 2.500 toneladas, con unas 2.000 toneladas que van hacia la producción de joyería e industrial.

The rising middle class in the BRIC countries or emerging market economies have increased the demand for gold as an expression of their wealth status. La creciente clase media en los países BRIC o economías de mercado emergentes han aumentado la demanda de oro como una expresión de su nivel de riqueza. The CBS 'Sixty Minutes' programme early this year analysed weddings ceremonies in India being made prominent with the large display of gold jewellery by both bride and groom. Programa Sixty Minutes de la CBS a principios de este año analiza las ceremonias bodas en la India que se están realizando prominente con la pantalla grande de joyas de oro por la novia y el novio. China, especially Hong Kong, boasts of some of the world's finest fashionable jewellery stores with designs that are in world demand. China, especialmente Hong Kong, se jacta de algunos de los mejores de moda del mundo, tiendas de joyas con diseños que se encuentran en la demanda mundial. Persons who had stored up their wealth in jewellery would gain more in real value terms than if the corresponding investments were made on financial products in Wall Street during the last decade. Las personas que habían acumulado sus riquezas en joyas ganaría más en términos de valor real que si las inversiones correspondientes se realizaron en los productos financieros en Wall Street durante la última década.

Gold prices also benefited from the advent in 2005 of the Exchange Traded Products (ETPs) in the market. Los precios del oro también se benefició de la llegada en 2005 de los productos cotizados (ETP) en el mercado. ETPs allow investors to purchase gold bullion as a share of stock. PTE permitir a los inversores a comprar lingotes de oro como parte de la acción. These shares are traded on the major stock markets. Estas acciones se cotizan en las principales bolsas de valores. The ETPs' shares of gold stock are expected to rise to the third highest level in the world by 2012. Las acciones de las PTE de reservas de oro se espera que aumente hasta el nivel más alto tercero en el mundo para el año 2012. The ETPs trade gold while profiting from arbitrage in the stock market, thereby creating an element of speculation in gold prices. El oro del comercio PTE mientras se benefician de arbitraje en el mercado de valores, creando así un elemento de especulación en los precios del oro.

In the contemporary era, gold has regained its 'Midas touch' and has fascinated investors and savers alike around the world. En la época contemporánea, el oro ha recuperado su "toque de Midas" y ha fascinado a los inversores y ahorradores por igual en todo el mundo. Savers see gold as a hedge against the depreciation of paper currencies, a hedge against inflation. Protectores de ver al oro como una cobertura contra la depreciación de las monedas de papel, una cobertura contra la inflación. Investment in gold carries little opportunity cost because of the low interest rates and yield earned on investments in the money market. La inversión en oro, lleva el costo de oportunidad muy poco debido a las bajas tasas de interés y los rendimientos devengados por las inversiones en el mercado de dinero. The price of gold in US dollars increased dramatically in the last decade; however, measured relative to the commodity of oil whose price like gold is tied to the US dollar, it increased more slowly and evenly. El precio del oro en dólares de Estados Unidos aumentó dramáticamente en la última década, sin embargo, medido en relación a la materia prima del petróleo cuyo precio como el oro está vinculado al dólar de EE.UU., aumentó más lentamente y de manera uniforme. The Economist (2011) pointed out that in 1986 an ounce of gold was worth 12 barrels of oil, now it is worth 13. The Economist (2011) señaló que en 1986 una onza de oro valía 12 barriles de petróleo, ahora es un valor de 13.

That will be even less given the hike in oil prices in recent times. Eso será mucho menos dado el alza en los precios del petróleo en los últimos tiempos. In the past, there has been some correlation between the price of gold, oil and a weakened US dollar. En el pasado, ha habido una cierta correlación entre el precio del oro, el petróleo y un debilitamiento del dólar de los EE.UU..

The prominent benchmark for the price of gold has been the London Gold Fixing that meets twice daily via teleconferencing, representing five bullion trading firms of the London Bullion Market. El punto de referencia importante para el precio del oro ha sido el London Gold Fixing que se reúne dos veces al día a través de teleconferencias, en representación de cinco empresas de comercio de lingotes de la London Bullion Market. The last meeting of the London Bullion Market Association (LBMA) was very optimistic about the future price of gold. La última reunión de la London Bullion Market Association (LBMA) se mostró muy optimista sobre el futuro precio del oro. The weakness of the major reserve currencies, the dollar and the euro, means that central banks will continue to trust gold since it is nobody's liability. La debilidad de las principales monedas de reserva, el dólar y el euro, significa que los bancos centrales siguen confiando en el oro, ya que es responsabilidad de nadie. The worst is that when large savers like pension funds, health funds, etc, try to find safe haven for their money they face daily headlines like bank bailouts, sovereign debt crises or another recession; given the onslaught on their capital during the financial crisis these fund managers will be risk averse to bet on a commodity such as gold. Lo peor es que cuando los ahorradores grandes, como los fondos de pensiones, fondos de salud, etc, tratar de encontrar un refugio seguro para su dinero que se enfrentan los titulares diarios como los rescates bancarios, las crisis de deuda soberana o de otra recesión, dada la arremetida de su capital durante la crisis financiera que estos los gestores de fondos será de aversión al riesgo de apostar en una mercancía como el oro.

There are numerous examples of gold regaining it role as a medium of exchange, for instance the Austrian Raiffisen Zentral Bank now offers clients gold based accounts. Hay numerosos ejemplos de oro recuperarla papel como medio de intercambio, por ejemplo, el austríaco Raiffisen Zentral Bank ahora ofrece cuentas de los clientes basados ​​en oro. SWIFT international payments messaging system now allows payment via gold. SWIFT internacional de pagos del sistema de mensajería permite ahora el pago a través del oro. Very soon there will be a gold money market and a gold bond market. Muy pronto habrá un mercado de dinero de oro y un mercado de bonos de oro.

“Gold was an anchor or a rule prior to World War 1 but it was compromised and eventually abandoned because it restrained the type of discretionary monetary and fiscal policies that modern democracy appears to value,” Allan Greenspan said in a speech in 1997. "El oro era un ancla o una regla antes de la Primera Guerra Mundial 1, pero se ha visto comprometida y finalmente abandonado, ya que contuvo el tipo de discrecional políticas monetarias y fiscales que la democracia moderna aparece con el valor", dijo Allan Greenspan en un discurso pronunciado en 1997.

Finally, both the Financial Times and the Economist predicted that the gold price will rise to US$2,000 per ounce by 2015. Por último, tanto el Financial Times y The Economist pronosticó que el precio del oro subirá a 2.000 dólares EE.UU. por onza en 2015. There will be period of price fluctuation, but given that the global economy is still at a crossroads, it is hard not to be optimistic about the future price of gold. No habrá período de fluctuación de los precios, pero dado que la economía mundial aún se encuentra en una encrucijada, es difícil no ser optimista sobre el futuro precio del oro.

It is the only means whereby the value of personal savings can be protected without it being confiscated by inflation. Es el único medio por el cual el valor de los ahorros personales pueden ser protegidos sin que se confiscó por la inflación.
Even if the price of gold does not rise as quickly as anticipated it is the strong trust on its value that makes it indispensable as commodity money.
Incluso si el precio del oro no aumenta tan rápidamente como se había anticipado, es la fuerte confianza en su valor que hace que sea indispensable como dinero mercancía.

Yours faithfully, Le saluda atentamente,
Rajendra Rampersaud Rajendra Rampersaud

Gold Prices US$ per troy oz Los precios del oro de dólares EE.UU. por onza troy


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It is hard not to be optimistic about the future price of gold


Posted By Stabroek staff On March 30, 2012 @ 5:07 am In Letters
Dear Editor,
The price of gold fell to US$1,667 an ounce mid-March thus reversing the upward trend experienced when the price continued to rise to reach US$1788 in February 2012. Gold is the most popular of all the precious metals and has not lost its glitter despite the dissolution of the gold standard and the high price of jewellery.

Historically, investors and central banks around the world hold gold as a store of value and to hedge against crisis, be it economic, political or a traumatic currency crisis. The current economic uncertainty of the world‘s major currencies, be it the US dollar, the euro or the Japanese yen will see gold continuing as a main store of value. The price of gold unlike the value of paper or fiat currencies cannot easily be manipulated by economic actors. Gold is therefore the most important commodity money.

What is important to note is the standard text model of demand and supply cannot be relied on solely as the mechanism in the determination of the price of gold.

The last decade especially after the global financial crisis saw the plummeting of Wall Street wealth. Since then gold has regained the special traction that had symbolized it as a safe store of value for more than two thousand years. This coveted value or confidence factor is preserved by the fact that it’s nobody’s liability.

The history of gold as one of the earliest forms of money, the gold standard, the large amount of gold reserves accumulated by central banks, its low correlation with the other metal prices and its price relationship with fiat currencies is a manifestation of gold behaving more like money than a commodity. 

Despite all major currency pegs being removed from the gold standard, with last being the Swiss franc in early 2000, central banks still hold a major part of their reserves in gold. The central banks in Europe hold on average 58 per cent of their reserves in gold, followed by the Federal Reserve Bank at 50 per cent. In total, central banks along with international organizations like the IMF hold nearly 20 per cent of world gold output. Sir Isaac Newton created the first gold standard in the UK in 1717, and despite breaking from the gold standard central banks have not relinquished that trust in gold.

The gold price rose by the double digits in percentage terms in nearly every year except 2004 in the last ten years. The high demand for gold is also propelled by jewellery and industrial demand that accounts for a large share of demand.

The India jewellery subsector represents 27 per cent of this demand and is the largest market for this segment of demand, followed by China and the US. According to the World Gold Council, annual mine production averaged 2,500 tonnes with some 2,000 tonnes going towards jewellery and industrial production.

The rising middle class in the BRIC countries or emerging market economies have increased the demand for gold as an expression of their wealth status. The CBS ‘Sixty Minutes’ programme early this year analysed weddings ceremonies in India being made prominent with the large display of gold jewellery by both bride and groom. China, especially Hong Kong, boasts of some of the world’s finest fashionable jewellery stores with designs that are in world demand. Persons who had stored up their wealth in jewellery would gain more in real value terms than if the corresponding investments were made on financial products in Wall Street during the last decade.

Gold prices also benefited from the advent in 2005 of the Exchange Traded Products (ETPs) in the market.  ETPs allow investors to purchase gold bullion as a share of stock. These shares are traded on the major stock markets. The ETPs’ shares of gold stock are expected to rise to the third highest level in the world by 2012. The ETPs trade gold while profiting from arbitrage in the stock market, thereby creating an element of speculation in gold prices.

In the contemporary era, gold has regained its ‘Midas touch’ and has fascinated investors and savers alike around the world. Savers see gold as a hedge against the depreciation of paper currencies, a hedge against inflation. Investment in gold carries little opportunity cost because of the low interest rates and yield earned on investments in the money market. The price of gold in US dollars increased dramatically in the last decade; however, measured relative to the commodity of oil whose price like gold is tied to the US dollar, it increased more slowly and evenly. The Economist (2011) pointed out that in 1986 an ounce of gold was worth 12 barrels of oil, now it is worth 13.

That will be even less given the hike in oil prices in recent times. In the past, there has been some correlation between the price of gold, oil and a weakened US dollar.

The prominent benchmark for the price of gold has been the London Gold Fixing that meets twice daily via teleconferencing, representing five bullion trading firms of the London Bullion Market. The last meeting of the London Bullion Market Association (LBMA) was very optimistic about the future price of gold. The weakness of the major reserve currencies, the dollar and the euro, means that central banks will continue to trust gold since it is nobody’s liability. The worst is that when large savers like pension funds, health funds, etc, try to find safe haven for their money they face daily headlines like bank bailouts, sovereign debt crises or another recession; given the onslaught on their capital during the financial crisis these fund managers will be risk averse to bet on a commodity such as gold.

There are numerous examples of gold regaining it role as a medium of exchange, for instance the Austrian Raiffisen Zentral Bank now offers clients gold based accounts. SWIFT international payments messaging system now allows payment via gold.  Very soon there will be a gold money market and a gold bond market.

“Gold was an anchor or a rule prior to World War 1 but it was compromised and eventually abandoned because it restrained the type of discretionary monetary and fiscal policies that modern democracy appears to value,” Allan Greenspan said in a speech in 1997.

Finally, both the Financial Times and the Economist predicted that the gold price will rise to US$2,000 per ounce by 2015. There will be period of price fluctuation, but given that the global economy is still at a crossroads, it is hard not to be optimistic about the future price of gold.

It is the only means whereby the value of personal savings can be protected without it being confiscated by inflation.

Even if the price of gold does not rise as quickly as anticipated it is the strong trust on its value that makes it indispensable as commodity money.

Yours faithfully,
Rajendra Rampersaud
Gold Prices US$ per troy oz


Article printed from Stabroek News: http://www.stabroeknews.com
URL to article: http://www.stabroeknews.com/2012/opinion/letters/03/30/it-is-hard-not-to-be-optimistic-about-the-future-price-of-gold/
1994 Guayana Esequiba - Zona en Reclamación MARNR Servicio Autónomo  de Geografía y Cartografía Nacional 3 Edición



Nota del editor del blog: Al referenciarse a la República Cooperativa de Guyana se deben de tener en cuenta los 159.500Km2, de territorios ubicados al oeste del río Esequibo conocidos con el nombre de Guayana Esequiba o Zona en Reclamación sujetos al Acuerdo de Ginebra del 17 de febrero de 1966.

Territorios estos sobre los cuales el gobierno Venezolano en representación de la Nación venezolana se reservo sus derechos sobre los territorios de la Guayana Esequiba en su nota del 26 de mayo de 1966 al reconocerse al nuevo Estado de Guyana .
“...por lo tanto, Venezuela reconoce como territorio del nuevo Estado, el que se sitúa al este de la margen derecha del río Esequibo y reitera ante la comunidad internacional, que se reserva expresamente sus derechos de soberanía territorial sobre la zona que se encuentra en la margen izquierda del precitado río; en consecuencia, el territorio de la Guayana Esequiba sobre el cual Venezuela se reserva expresamente sus derechos soberanos, limita al Este con el nuevo Estado de Guyana, a través de la línea del río Esequibo, tomando éste desde su nacimiento hasta su desembocadura en el Océano Atlántico...”


 Mapa que señala el Espacio de Soberanía Marítima Venezolana que se reserva, como Mar Territorial mediante el Decreto Presidencial No 1152 del 09 de Julio de 1968.


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