Tomado de
Es difícil no ser optimista sobre el futuro precio
del oro
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Posted By Stabroek staff On March 30, 2012 @
5:07 am In Letters | No
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Publicado por
Stabroek personal en 30 de marzo 2012 @ 05:07 am En
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Dear Editor, Sr.
Director:
The price of gold fell to
US$1,667 an ounce mid-March thus reversing the upward trend experienced when
the price continued to rise to reach US$1788 in February 2012. El
precio del oro cayó a EE.UU. $ 1.667 la onza a mediados de marzo revirtiendo
así la tendencia alcista experimentada cuando el precio ha seguido aumentando
hasta llegar a EE.UU. $ 1788 en febrero de 2012. Gold is the most popular of all the precious metals and has not
lost its glitter despite the dissolution of the gold standard and the high
price of jewellery. El oro es el más popular de todos los metales
preciosos y no ha perdido su brillo pese a la disolución del patrón oro y el
alto precio de las joyas.
Historically, investors
and central banks around the world hold gold as a store of value and to hedge
against crisis, be it economic, political or a traumatic currency crisis.
Históricamente, los inversionistas y los bancos centrales de todo el mundo
celebran el oro como reserva de valor y para protegerse contra la crisis, sea
económica, política o de una crisis monetaria traumático. The current economic uncertainty of the
world's major currencies, be it the US dollar, the euro or the Japanese yen
will see gold continuing as a main store of value. La incertidumbre
económica actual de las principales monedas del mundo, ya sea el dólar de
EE.UU., el euro o el yen japonés se verá el oro continúa como principal almacén
de valor. The price of gold unlike the
value of paper or fiat currencies cannot easily be manipulated by economic
actors. El precio del oro a diferencia del valor de papel o monedas
fiduciarias no pueden ser fácilmente manipulados por los agentes económicos. Gold is therefore the most important
commodity money. El oro es por lo tanto, el dinero producto más
importante.
What is important to note
is the standard text model of demand and supply cannot be relied on solely as
the mechanism in the determination of the price of gold. ¿Qué
es importante tener en cuenta es el texto del modelo normalizado de la demanda
y la oferta no puede ser invocado únicamente como el mecanismo para la
determinación del precio del oro.
The last decade
especially after the global financial crisis saw the plummeting of Wall Street
wealth.
En la última década sobre todo después de la crisis financiera mundial vio el
desplome de Wall Street la riqueza. Since
then gold has regained the special traction that had symbolized it as a safe
store of value for more than two thousand years. Desde entonces, el oro
ha recuperado la tracción especial que había simbolizado como un almacén de
valor seguro por más de dos mil años. This
coveted value or confidence factor is preserved by the fact that it's nobody's
liability. Este valor codiciado o factor de confianza se mantiene por el
hecho de que es responsabilidad de nadie.
The history of gold as
one of the earliest forms of money, the gold standard, the large amount of gold
reserves accumulated by central banks, its low correlation with the other metal
prices and its price relationship with fiat currencies is a manifestation of
gold behaving more like money than a commodity. La historia del oro como
una de las primeras formas de dinero, el patrón oro, la gran cantidad de
reservas de oro acumuladas por los bancos centrales, su baja correlación con
los precios de otros metales y su relación con el precio de las monedas
fiduciarias es una manifestación de oro comportarse de manera más gusta el
dinero que una mercancía. Despite all
major currency pegs being removed from the gold standard, with last being the
Swiss franc in early 2000, central banks still hold a major part of their
reserves in gold. A pesar de todas las monedas de los principales
clavijas de ser retirado del patrón oro, con la última de las cuales el franco
suizo a principios de 2000, los bancos centrales aún tienen una parte
importante de sus reservas en oro. The
central banks in Europe hold on average 58 per cent of their reserves in gold,
followed by the Federal Reserve Bank at 50 per cent. Los bancos
centrales de Europa tienen en promedio 58 por ciento de sus reservas en oro,
seguido por el Banco de la Reserva Federal el 50 por ciento. In total, central banks along with
international organizations like the IMF hold nearly 20 per cent of world gold
output. En total, los bancos centrales, junto con organizaciones
internacionales como el FMI ocupan casi el 20 por ciento de la producción
mundial de oro. Sir Isaac Newton
created the first gold standard in the UK in 1717, and despite breaking from
the gold standard central banks have not relinquished that trust in gold.
Sir Isaac Newton creó el estándar de oro por primera vez en el Reino Unido en 1717,
ya pesar de romper con los bancos centrales de oro estándar no han renunciado a
que la confianza en el oro.
The gold price rose by
the double digits in percentage terms in nearly every year except 2004 in the
last ten years.
El precio del oro aumentó en los dos dígitos en términos porcentuales en casi
todos los años excepto 2004, en los últimos diez años. The high demand for gold is also propelled by jewellery and
industrial demand that accounts for a large share of demand. La alta
demanda de oro también impulsado por la demanda de joyería e industrial que
representa una gran parte de la demanda.
The India jewellery
subsector represents 27 per cent of this demand and is the largest market for
this segment of demand, followed by China and the US. El
subsector de la joyería de la India representa el 27 por ciento de esta demanda
y es el mayor mercado para este segmento de la demanda, seguido por China y los
EE.UU.. According to the World Gold
Council, annual mine production averaged 2,500 tonnes with some 2,000 tonnes
going towards jewellery and industrial production. Según el Consejo
Mundial del Oro, la producción minera anual promedio de 2.500 toneladas, con
unas 2.000 toneladas que van hacia la producción de joyería e industrial.
The rising middle class
in the BRIC countries or emerging market economies have increased the demand
for gold as an expression of their wealth status. La creciente clase media
en los países BRIC o economías de mercado emergentes han aumentado la demanda
de oro como una expresión de su nivel de riqueza. The CBS 'Sixty Minutes' programme early this year analysed
weddings ceremonies in India being made prominent with the large display of
gold jewellery by both bride and groom. Programa Sixty Minutes de la CBS
a principios de este año analiza las ceremonias bodas en la India que se están
realizando prominente con la pantalla grande de joyas de oro por la novia y el
novio. China, especially Hong Kong,
boasts of some of the world's finest fashionable jewellery stores with designs
that are in world demand. China, especialmente Hong Kong, se jacta de
algunos de los mejores de moda del mundo, tiendas de joyas con diseños que se
encuentran en la demanda mundial. Persons
who had stored up their wealth in jewellery would gain more in real value terms
than if the corresponding investments were made on financial products in Wall
Street during the last decade. Las personas que habían acumulado sus
riquezas en joyas ganaría más en términos de valor real que si las inversiones
correspondientes se realizaron en los productos financieros en Wall Street
durante la última década.
Gold prices also
benefited from the advent in 2005 of the Exchange Traded Products (ETPs) in the
market.
Los precios del oro también se benefició de la llegada en 2005 de los productos
cotizados (ETP) en el mercado. ETPs
allow investors to purchase gold bullion as a share of stock. PTE
permitir a los inversores a comprar lingotes de oro como parte de la acción. These shares are traded on the major stock
markets. Estas acciones se cotizan en las principales bolsas de valores.
The ETPs' shares of gold stock are
expected to rise to the third highest level in the world by 2012. Las
acciones de las PTE de reservas de oro se espera que aumente hasta el nivel más
alto tercero en el mundo para el año 2012. The ETPs trade gold while profiting from arbitrage in the stock
market, thereby creating an element of speculation in gold prices. El
oro del comercio PTE mientras se benefician de arbitraje en el mercado de
valores, creando así un elemento de especulación en los precios del oro.
In the contemporary era,
gold has regained its 'Midas touch' and has fascinated investors and savers
alike around the world.
En la época contemporánea, el oro ha recuperado su "toque de Midas" y
ha fascinado a los inversores y ahorradores por igual en todo el mundo. Savers see gold as a hedge against the
depreciation of paper currencies, a hedge against inflation. Protectores
de ver al oro como una cobertura contra la depreciación de las monedas de
papel, una cobertura contra la inflación. Investment in gold carries little opportunity cost because of the low
interest rates and yield earned on investments in the money market. La
inversión en oro, lleva el costo de oportunidad muy poco debido a las bajas
tasas de interés y los rendimientos devengados por las inversiones en el
mercado de dinero. The price of gold in
US dollars increased dramatically in the last decade; however, measured
relative to the commodity of oil whose price like gold is tied to the US
dollar, it increased more slowly and evenly. El precio del oro en
dólares de Estados Unidos aumentó dramáticamente en la última década, sin
embargo, medido en relación a la materia prima del petróleo cuyo precio como el
oro está vinculado al dólar de EE.UU., aumentó más lentamente y de manera
uniforme. The Economist (2011) pointed
out that in 1986 an ounce of gold was worth 12 barrels of oil, now it is worth
13. The Economist (2011) señaló que en 1986 una onza de oro valía 12
barriles de petróleo, ahora es un valor de 13.
That will be even less
given the hike in oil prices in recent times. Eso será mucho menos dado
el alza en los precios del petróleo en los últimos tiempos. In the past, there has been some correlation
between the price of gold, oil and a weakened US dollar. En el pasado,
ha habido una cierta correlación entre el precio del oro, el petróleo y un
debilitamiento del dólar de los EE.UU..
The prominent benchmark
for the price of gold has been the London Gold Fixing that meets twice daily
via teleconferencing, representing five bullion trading firms of the London
Bullion Market.
El punto de referencia importante para el precio del oro ha sido el London Gold
Fixing que se reúne dos veces al día a través de teleconferencias, en representación
de cinco empresas de comercio de lingotes de la London Bullion Market. The last meeting of the London Bullion Market
Association (LBMA) was very optimistic about the future price of gold.
La última reunión de la London Bullion Market Association (LBMA) se mostró muy
optimista sobre el futuro precio del oro. The weakness of the major reserve currencies, the dollar and the euro,
means that central banks will continue to trust gold since it is nobody's
liability. La debilidad de las principales monedas de reserva, el dólar
y el euro, significa que los bancos centrales siguen confiando en el oro, ya
que es responsabilidad de nadie. The
worst is that when large savers like pension funds, health funds, etc, try to
find safe haven for their money they face daily headlines like bank bailouts,
sovereign debt crises or another recession; given the onslaught on their
capital during the financial crisis these fund managers will be risk averse to
bet on a commodity such as gold. Lo peor es que cuando los ahorradores
grandes, como los fondos de pensiones, fondos de salud, etc, tratar de
encontrar un refugio seguro para su dinero que se enfrentan los titulares
diarios como los rescates bancarios, las crisis de deuda soberana o de otra
recesión, dada la arremetida de su capital durante la crisis financiera que
estos los gestores de fondos será de aversión al riesgo de apostar en una
mercancía como el oro.
There are numerous
examples of gold regaining it role as a medium of exchange, for instance the
Austrian Raiffisen Zentral Bank now offers clients gold based accounts. Hay
numerosos ejemplos de oro recuperarla papel como medio de intercambio, por
ejemplo, el austríaco Raiffisen Zentral Bank ahora ofrece cuentas de los
clientes basados en oro. SWIFT
international payments messaging system now allows payment via gold.
SWIFT internacional de pagos del sistema de mensajería permite ahora el pago a
través del oro. Very soon there will be
a gold money market and a gold bond market. Muy pronto habrá un mercado
de dinero de oro y un mercado de bonos de oro.
“Gold was an anchor or a
rule prior to World War 1 but it was compromised and eventually abandoned
because it restrained the type of discretionary monetary and fiscal policies
that modern democracy appears to value,” Allan Greenspan said in a speech in
1997.
"El oro era un ancla o una regla antes de la Primera Guerra Mundial 1,
pero se ha visto comprometida y finalmente abandonado, ya que contuvo el tipo
de discrecional políticas monetarias y fiscales que la democracia moderna
aparece con el valor", dijo Allan Greenspan en un discurso pronunciado en
1997.
Finally, both the
Financial Times and the Economist predicted that the gold price will rise to
US$2,000 per ounce by 2015.
Por último, tanto el Financial Times y The Economist pronosticó que el precio
del oro subirá a 2.000 dólares EE.UU. por onza en 2015. There will be period of price fluctuation, but given that
the global economy is still at a crossroads, it is hard not to be optimistic
about the future price of gold. No habrá período de fluctuación de los
precios, pero dado que la economía mundial aún se encuentra en una encrucijada,
es difícil no ser optimista sobre el futuro precio del oro.
It is the only means
whereby the value of personal savings can be protected without it being
confiscated by inflation.
Es el único medio por el cual el valor de los ahorros personales pueden ser
protegidos sin que se confiscó por la inflación.
Even if the price of gold does not rise
as quickly as anticipated it is the strong trust on its value that makes it
indispensable as commodity money.
Incluso si el precio del oro no
aumenta tan rápidamente como se había anticipado, es la fuerte confianza en su
valor que hace que sea indispensable como dinero mercancía.
Yours faithfully, Le
saluda atentamente,
Rajendra Rampersaud Rajendra
Rampersaud
Gold Prices US$ per troy
oz
Los precios del oro de dólares EE.UU. por onza troy
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It
is hard not to be optimistic about the future price of gold
Posted By Stabroek staff On March 30, 2012 @ 5:07 am In Letters
Dear
Editor,
The price of gold fell to
US$1,667 an ounce mid-March thus reversing the upward trend experienced when
the price continued to rise to reach US$1788 in February 2012. Gold is the most
popular of all the precious metals and has not lost its glitter despite the
dissolution of the gold standard and the high price of jewellery.
Historically, investors and
central banks around the world hold gold as a store of value and to hedge
against crisis, be it economic, political or a traumatic currency crisis. The
current economic uncertainty of the world‘s major currencies, be it the US
dollar, the euro or the Japanese yen will see gold continuing as a main store
of value. The price of gold unlike the value of paper or fiat currencies cannot
easily be manipulated by economic actors. Gold is therefore the most important
commodity money.
What is important to note
is the standard text model of demand and supply cannot be relied on solely as
the mechanism in the determination of the price of gold.
The last decade especially
after the global financial crisis saw the plummeting of Wall Street wealth.
Since then gold has regained the special traction that had symbolized it as a
safe store of value for more than two thousand years. This coveted value or
confidence factor is preserved by the fact that it’s nobody’s liability.
The history of gold as one
of the earliest forms of money, the gold standard, the large amount of gold
reserves accumulated by central banks, its low correlation with the other metal
prices and its price relationship with fiat currencies is a manifestation of
gold behaving more like money than a commodity.
Despite all major currency pegs
being removed from the gold standard, with last being the Swiss franc in early
2000, central banks still hold a major part of their reserves in gold. The
central banks in Europe hold on average 58 per cent of their reserves in gold,
followed by the Federal Reserve Bank at 50 per cent. In total, central banks
along with international organizations like the IMF hold nearly 20 per cent of
world gold output. Sir Isaac Newton created the first gold standard in the UK
in 1717, and despite breaking from the gold standard central banks have not
relinquished that trust in gold.
The gold price rose by the
double digits in percentage terms in nearly every year except 2004 in the last
ten years. The high demand for gold is also propelled by jewellery and
industrial demand that accounts for a large share of demand.
The India jewellery
subsector represents 27 per cent of this demand and is the largest market for
this segment of demand, followed by China and the US. According to the World
Gold Council, annual mine production averaged 2,500 tonnes with some 2,000
tonnes going towards jewellery and industrial production.
The rising middle class in
the BRIC countries or emerging market economies have increased the demand for
gold as an expression of their wealth status. The CBS ‘Sixty Minutes’ programme
early this year analysed weddings ceremonies in India being made prominent with
the large display of gold jewellery by both bride and groom. China, especially
Hong Kong, boasts of some of the world’s finest fashionable jewellery stores
with designs that are in world demand. Persons who had stored up their wealth
in jewellery would gain more in real value terms than if the corresponding
investments were made on financial products in Wall Street during the last
decade.
Gold prices also benefited
from the advent in 2005 of the Exchange Traded Products (ETPs) in the
market. ETPs allow investors to purchase gold bullion as a share of
stock. These shares are traded on the major stock markets. The ETPs’ shares of
gold stock are expected to rise to the third highest level in the world by
2012. The ETPs trade gold while profiting from arbitrage in the stock market,
thereby creating an element of speculation in gold prices.
In the contemporary era,
gold has regained its ‘Midas touch’ and has fascinated investors and savers
alike around the world. Savers see gold as a hedge against the depreciation of
paper currencies, a hedge against inflation. Investment in gold carries little
opportunity cost because of the low interest rates and yield earned on
investments in the money market. The price of gold in US dollars increased
dramatically in the last decade; however, measured relative to the commodity of
oil whose price like gold is tied to the US dollar, it increased more slowly
and evenly. The Economist (2011) pointed out that in 1986 an ounce of gold was
worth 12 barrels of oil, now it is worth 13.
That will be even less
given the hike in oil prices in recent times. In the past, there has been some
correlation between the price of gold, oil and a weakened US dollar.
The prominent benchmark for
the price of gold has been the London Gold Fixing that meets twice daily via
teleconferencing, representing five bullion trading firms of the London Bullion
Market. The last meeting of the London Bullion Market Association (LBMA) was
very optimistic about the future price of gold. The weakness of the major
reserve currencies, the dollar and the euro, means that central banks will
continue to trust gold since it is nobody’s liability. The worst is that when
large savers like pension funds, health funds, etc, try to find safe haven for
their money they face daily headlines like bank bailouts, sovereign debt crises
or another recession; given the onslaught on their capital during the financial
crisis these fund managers will be risk averse to bet on a commodity such as
gold.
There are numerous examples
of gold regaining it role as a medium of exchange, for instance the Austrian
Raiffisen Zentral Bank now offers clients gold based accounts. SWIFT
international payments messaging system now allows payment via gold. Very
soon there will be a gold money market and a gold bond market.
“Gold was an anchor or a
rule prior to World War 1 but it was compromised and eventually abandoned
because it restrained the type of discretionary monetary and fiscal policies
that modern democracy appears to value,” Allan Greenspan said in a speech in
1997.
Finally, both the Financial
Times and the Economist predicted that the gold price will rise to US$2,000 per
ounce by 2015. There will be period of price fluctuation, but given that the
global economy is still at a crossroads, it is hard not to be optimistic about
the future price of gold.
It is the only means
whereby the value of personal savings can be protected without it being
confiscated by inflation.
Even if the price of gold does not rise as quickly as anticipated it is the
strong trust on its value that makes it indispensable as commodity money.
Yours
faithfully,
Rajendra Rampersaud
Gold Prices US$ per troy oz
Article printed from
Stabroek News: http://www.stabroeknews.com
URL to article: http://www.stabroeknews.com/2012/opinion/letters/03/30/it-is-hard-not-to-be-optimistic-about-the-future-price-of-gold/
1994 Guayana
Esequiba - Zona en Reclamación MARNR Servicio Autónomo de Geografía y Cartografía Nacional 3 Edición
Nota del editor del blog: Al
referenciarse a la República Cooperativa de Guyana se deben de tener en cuenta
los 159.500Km2, de territorios ubicados al oeste del río Esequibo conocidos con
el nombre de Guayana Esequiba o Zona en Reclamación sujetos al Acuerdo de
Ginebra del 17 de febrero de 1966.
Territorios estos sobre los cuales el
gobierno Venezolano en representación de la Nación venezolana se reservo sus
derechos sobre los territorios de la Guayana Esequiba en su nota del 26 de mayo
de 1966 al reconocerse al nuevo Estado de Guyana .
“...por lo tanto, Venezuela reconoce
como territorio del nuevo Estado, el que se sitúa al este de la margen derecha
del río Esequibo y reitera ante la comunidad internacional, que se reserva
expresamente sus derechos de soberanía territorial sobre la zona que se
encuentra en la margen izquierda del precitado río; en consecuencia, el
territorio de la Guayana Esequiba sobre el cual Venezuela se reserva
expresamente sus derechos soberanos, limita al Este con el nuevo Estado de Guyana,
a través de la línea del río Esequibo, tomando éste desde su nacimiento hasta
su desembocadura en el Océano Atlántico...”
Mapa que señala el Espacio de Soberanía Marítima
Venezolana que se reserva, como Mar Territorial mediante el
Decreto Presidencial No 1152 del 09 de Julio de 1968.
